Predicting Election Night Margin 3

Posted on Thu 01 June 2023 in Election Modeling • Tagged with python, mixed effects, elections, S3

The below graphic, on the left, shows how counties report in the 2022 Georgia Senate election. The order of counties reporting tends to skews election results. If liberal counties report early, the phenomenon is sometimes referred to as the right hook. This notoriously happens in Florida, as early results make …

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Predicting Election Night Margin 2

Posted on Fri 12 May 2023 in Python, Data Science • Tagged with python, mixed effects, elections, S3

As results come in election night, counties vary widely in representation of democrat vs republican margins. Rural counties tend to heavily favor republicans, while counties in urban areas tend to favor democrats, so depending on which counties are being reported first, early result margins might not represent the true, state-wide …

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