Populating Timestream With Scraped Predictit Market Ticks 2

Posted on Thu 26 October 2023 in Election Modeling • Tagged with Python, Timestream, AWS Lambda, EventBridge

In the last section, we explored scraping predictit.com market data and storing results in a Timestream database. We implemented code to perform a single capture of market data. For our time-series dataset. A market capture accounts for a single point in the data dimension, but true time-series data must …


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Populating Timestream With Scraped Predictit Market Ticks 1

Posted on Wed 04 October 2023 in Election Modeling • Tagged with Python, Timestream

Amazon Timestream is a fully managed time series database. It's a relatively new offering to the AWS serverless portfolio. Main Timestream use case is to store IoT device-generated time series data, but our goal is to eventually build a notification and monitoring system based on prediction market tick data that …


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Predicting Election Night Margin 3

Posted on Thu 01 June 2023 in Election Modeling • Tagged with python, mixed effects, elections, S3

The below graphic, on the left, shows how counties report in the 2022 Georgia Senate election. The order of counties reporting tends to skews election results. If liberal counties report early, the phenomenon is sometimes referred to as the right hook. This notoriously happens in Florida, as early results make …


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Automate Election Night Returns Scraping With AWS Lambda

Posted on Sun 26 June 2022 in Election Modeling • Tagged with Python, AWS Lambda, S3, EventBridge, CloudWatch

To build our ‘Election Margin Projection Model’, we need to capture election night vote counts. Unfortunately, most archives of election results only record final vote tallies, but we need vote count as a time series during the tally process throughout election night(or election weeks as has been the custom …


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